Friday 11 December 2009

Unusual Alert


Unusual Alert

One of my brokers provides me a daily email alerting me on bullish / bearish technical indicators for specific stocks based on a pre-defined criteria that I've provided.

In the past week / 10 days, I've noticed something extremely unusual:
  • The usual email just talks about a max of 5-10 companies
  • For the past few days, it has been a bit of a laundry list (more like a google search), mentioning the "first 50 stocks" of a list of many more stocks satisfying the pre-defined criteria that I've provided - Only on the bullish side!
  • The bearish side has almost disappeared or has just a single stock or two on most days!
What does one infer from the above? Some obvious thoughts:
  • We're in a very strong bull market, perhaps bordering on a bubble phase
  • We're perhaps ready for a really strong break-out on the upside
  • Which, in turn, should lead us to the end of the next bubble phase
My own suggestions based on the above:
  • Start being very careful in the market
  • Be very wary about making any fresh purchases (except perhaps for the very immediate short term)
  • Start booking profits gradually (if you've not already started doing so)
  • Increase your cash levels
  • When the market suddenly starts zooming upwards suddenly and violently, please recall the period when the Sensex moved from 17000 to 21000 in a matter of just a couple of months. And, aggressively book profits in this phase.
  • Don't regret about shares which continue to zoom after you've sold them - You're better off with cash, and you're likely to get lower levels to re-invest some time during 2010.
Happy investing!

Regards,

N

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1 comment:

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