Thursday 25 June 2009

The Next Big Crisis - Credit Card Defaults

The Next Big Crisis - Credit Card Defaults

Take a look at this link:

What's disconcerting is not merely the contents of the article which talks about "an estimated NPA of 10.62% of all credit card dues", but the fact that the figures are bandied about as being almost routine and normal.

In contrast, the corresponding figure in India is likely to be a very low single digit figure. And, most Indians don't have a credit card in the first place.

Watch out for the next crisis!

Regards,

N


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Tuesday 23 June 2009

Read Everything

Read Everything

The best advice that Ace investor Jim Rogers ever got:

Regards,

N


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Sunday 7 June 2009

The importance of Timing the Market


The importance of Timing the Market


You'll often observe self-proclaimed experts talking about the importance of time in the market being more critical for wealth-building than timing the market.


On many occasions, you'd have seen figures bandied by mutual fund folks about how much your returns will reduce if you miss out the best "n" days in the market each year.


They're all stating the truth, but only the partial truth.


It is equally important to ensure that you keep booking profits from time to time.


The very same fund managers hardly ever talk about what happens if you miss the worst "n" days in the market each year. I've always known intuitively that it is likely to have quite a significant impact on our wealth-building process.


I've been looking for readily available information that's India-specific. Thus far I've not located anything meaningful.


However, I've just located this interesting piece of info from the US markets (covering the period from 1966 to 2000):





Am quite sure that the figures will not be too different for Indian markets.


Just goes to show the importance of:




  • Periodically booking profits, especially in over-valued scrips / mutual funds when the markets are overheated and quoting at crazy PE ratios


  • Choosing the dividend payout option in mutual funds


  • And keep investing the surplus generated from the above two steps in cash-equivalents to be converted into shares / mutual fund units when the appropriate opportunity arises.

Regards,


N





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Thursday 4 June 2009

Do your own research

Don't listen to "Experts"

Just came across something funny on NDTV Profit (which was repeated ad infinitum over the last 24 hours) - All about the proceedings at a seminar (or was it a conference) of Morgan Stanley.

These so-called experts gave some predictions about the year-end target levels for the Sensex. Again! Apparently, these folks have some nerve, indeed!

And, pray, what are their predictions?

???

    ???

            ???

                ???

Don't laugh ... ... ...

  • Base case levels of BSE Sensex - around 15300
  • Bear case scenario - 8500
  • Bull case scenario - 19500

Essentially, they're predicting a range from a low of 8500 to a high of 19300.

And what are the investors expected to do from such predictions?

Guess they expect us to toss a coin or throw darts and decide for ourselves.

At least about the latter part about deciding for ourselves, I'd tend to agree with them.

However, if that were to be the case, what on earth do we part with our hard-earned money to seek their "expert opinions"?

Regards,

N


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