Dangers of investing based on Index levels
I've been a long term fan of Parag Parikh. You ought to listen to him on why it can be dangerous to invest purely based on Index levels. And, also why index funds need not necessarily be a great idea!
Read this link:
In the Indian context (I only know about India - It is probably true anywhere in the world ...), bottom up investing is always much better than a top down approach. Top down approach and index based investing is perhaps better suited to lazy fund managers.